Aquaculture accelerates and overtakes poultry in protein production – Aquaculture is poised for strong growth in 2025, consolidating its role as the main driver of increased global animal protein supply. According to Rabobank’s Global Animal Protein Outlook 2025 report, the sector will expand 2.3% annually, outpacing the recovery of poultry and establishing itself as the leading sector in the global protein supply.
After a slight contraction in 2024, the seafood sector is poised to dominate the scene thanks to a recovery in salmon production, a rebalancing of the shrimp market, and an increase in fishmeal availability resulting from an increased anchovy catch in Peru. However, macroeconomic and geopolitical factors could influence international trade, affecting costs and supply and demand dynamics.
Salmon on the rise but with biological challenges
Rabobank forecasts an increase in salmon production of 3.5% per year, with Norway and Chile as the main players. Norway could see 3% to 4% growth, but biological challenges, including sea lice and low vaccination coverage against winter ulcer, remain an unknown. Lower temperatures and new vaccines could mitigate the risks, improving prospects for farmers.
In Chile, production expansion will be between 1% and 2%, due to better environmental conditions and reduced mortality. On the price front, salmon will continue to maintain a high value, although falling slightly from its 2024 peaks. Its cheapness compared to other animal proteins could boost demand.
Prawns: market rebalances with moderate growth
After years of overproduction and falling prices, the shrimp industry is correcting its course. Supply growth will slow to 1%-2% in 2025, allowing the market to rebalance. Ecuador, the world’s leading producer, will see an expansion between 0% and 3%, influenced by falling Chinese demand. Diversification of export markets and investment in higher value-added products are key strategies for the sector.
In Asia, shrimp production will resume growth of 2%, marking a turnaround from the past two difficult years. Improved demand in the EU and US could boost breeders, although competition from Ecuador remains a key factor.
Challenges and opportunities for the global fish sector
In addition to market dynamics, Rabobank highlights some risk factors. Geopolitical tensions and a possible increase in trade tariffs could dampen global trade. In addition, inflationary pressure and economic uncertainties could affect consumer demand.
From a health perspective, the industry will have to face the constant threat of animal diseases. However, advanced technological solutions, including vaccines, genetics and artificial intelligence, will offer increasingly effective tools for managing biosecurity and improving productivity.
With expected growth exceeding that of poultry and an increasingly central role in the global protein supply, aquaculture remains the sector to watch in 2025. The challenge will be to balance supply and demand while ensuring sustainability and innovation.
Aquaculture accelerates and overtakes poultry in protein production
