Where Will the Boats Go?

Where Will the Boats Go? A Discussion with Dr. Jennifer Raynor on the First Global Predictive Modeling of Fishing Effort in a 30×30 Ocean.

If a third of the oceans closed for fishing, where would the boats go? That is precisely what Dr. Jennifer Raynor, natural resource economist, professor, and board member for Global Fishing Watch, a leading non-profit in global fisheries transparency, and her colleagues found out. In an interview I conducted with Dr. Raynor, I learned how she and her associates built a crystal ball for the fishing future: the first global fishing behavior forecasting tool that simulated just such a scenario on commercial fishing vessels. 

The new predictive model offers the clearest picture yet of what the global redistribution of fishing could look like up to three years after implementation of no-fishing zones, or Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). For governments and fishing industries wary of economic impacts, policymakers sceptical of feasible implementation, and coastal communities around the world bearing the brunt of climate change, Raynor and her colleagues’ findings could inform decisions that impact the lives of millions.

Context: 30×30 and the race to conserve our oceans 

Climate change, mass pollution, and chronic overfishing within the last century have continued to devastate 70% of our planet: the oceans. The role of the oceans as major carbon sinks, incubators of infrastructure for coastal protection, and a critical source of human nutrition prompted the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework in 2022 to formalize 30×30, a global goal of protecting 30% of all marine areas by 2030. 

Just five years away from that goal, however, only 9.6% of our oceans are protected. MPAs form one of the main strategies for countries to achieve this ambitious objective, yet only 3% of marine areas are fully or highly protected from fishing activity, with many more reopened to fishing due to economic concerns and political pressure. The Phoenix Islands Protected Areas, located in the Central Pacific, formed the largest MPA until Kiribati’s government reopened it in 2021, citing economic concerns. Removing MPAs only serves to increase global trepidation around establishing MPAs as nations doubt economic and implementation viability. Understanding how fishing vessels react to closures is, therefore, critical to measuring their impacts. So, they asked the question on the minds of millions: where would the boats go? 

Dr. Raynor’s research

Just as climate models predict future weather conditions, the model used by Raynor and her colleagues predicts the future movement of commercial fishing fleets with the creation of new MPAs. Unlike weather models, however, Raynor asserts that “the model does not run on assumptions,” but on the actual past behavior of fishing fleets in response to existing MPAs. The team, led by Gavin McDonald at the University of California, Santa Barbara, trained the model in 2024 with existing data on fishing fleet movements between 2016 and 2021. The data included information on environmental, economic, and governance conditions, and the impact of current MPAs on these patterns. Raynor and her colleagues could then apply these patterns to a number of future MPA implementation scenarios, adjusting the percentage of area protected and levels of past fishing activity. 

They specifically focused on industrial-scale fishing vessels that had automatic identification systems (AIS) tracking, showing the boat’s real-time location for collision avoidance and traffic control. Not only did the choice of boats with AIS transponders make for a concrete data point, but they also catch the largest amount of fish: a staggering 80 million metric tons per year. “The industrial fishing fleet is important to understand because it is a major economic engine in many places, generating jobs for hundreds of millions of people. But it can also harm ecosystems when fishing is too intense,” Raynor explained. 

The boats stayed home?

After running the models through various scenarios, Raynor and her team made a surprising discovery: not only did fishing activity decrease inside MPAs, but it decreased outside of them as well. This finding flies in the face of previous assumptions that claimed fishing would increase right outside of MPAs as fleets moved beyond the restricted areas. The reasons behind this phenomenon are unknown to the researchers as of yet, but Raynor provided two compelling theories as to why this might occur. 

The first optimistic scenario simply points to biological spillover, or the idea that fish populations would recover to the point of spreading beyond the MPA’s perimeter. The abundance of fish would lead to a decrease in the amount of fishing effort and time spent catching them if captains simply want to fill their hulls and are not focused on maximizing profits. Raynor explored just such a real-life scenario in a previous paper she wrote on the ecological recovery of the then world’s largest MPA, Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument (US). The closure led to the recovery of fish populations that increased catch rates for the long-line fisheries. The second reason could be the exact reverse of the first: no spillover occurred, and the desired species remain in the MPA perimeter, so fishing outside offers no economic advantage, and can incur costs in fuel and time. 

Economic and ecological balance 

 Raynor and her colleagues’ findings offer a glimmer of hope regarding economic viability and ecological recovery. While a concrete economic assessment of MPA implementation was not made in this research, less fishing activity does not necessarily mean that fishing is less profitable. For example, improved stock health could make fishing easier, as mentioned previously. It could also be attributed to the implementation of other simultaneous incentives that help fishing fleets transition to other sectors. In many cases, policies that promote targeted financial support and investments in local value chains can alleviate economic strain amidst restrictions:

“There are ways that policymakers can help when communities are affected by new fishing restrictions,” Raynor argued. One key strategy is to help increase their income per unit of catch that they’re getting.  

Shortening the value chain is one effective way to cut costs and boost local coastal economies, according to Raynor. This is achieved by processing fish locally, instead of exporting, so more of the value of the fish stays in the community. The use of cold storage and transportation could also allow for selling fish into higher-value markets. Additionally, investments in local restaurants that will pay a premium for fresh fish could also compensate for restricted catch. 

Implications for future MPA planning

The most significant implication of Raynor’s research is that placement matters just as much, if not more, than the percentage of the ocean protected. “Strategic MPA placement,” Raynor argued, “could lead to win-win situations.” The win-win situation here refers to the balance between ecological health and profitability that is only achieved with careful planning. Instead of narrowly focusing on the raw percentage of protected areas, as the 30×30 goal does, governments and researchers should prioritize areas that will deliver the biggest increase in biodiversity globally and influence fishing behavior. 

The models showed that protecting the most heavily fished areas led to the greatest decrease in fishing effort (up to 50%). This is in contrast to protecting lightly fished areas, which only saw a 6% decrease. While protecting overfished areas is important for the regeneration of biodiversity, Dr. Raynor was careful to not discount the protection of pristine or untouched areas as merely “symbolic.” To the contrary, she argued that they offer an important baseline of what a healthy marine ecosystem should look like. They also protect places that may experience future pressure if fishing conditions change.

Above all, Raynor emphasized the importance of policy-makers to implement “adaptive management.” The impacts of closures will vary by country, with some suffering from closures and others benefiting. This requires a new way of critically assessing if an MPA is doing what it is supposed to: benefiting the environment and society. If not, then there should be mechanisms in place that economically alleviate the fishing industry and coastal communities, and allow for policy-makers to return to the drawing board and rethink an MPA. Flexibility of MPAs will also be critical as climate change shifts species’ ranges. 

Finally, Dr. Raynor noted that it is now possible to detect fishing boats with satellites instead of vessels with AIS transponders. This opens up a whole world of management capacity for countries with less money and man-power to ensure compliance. 

The future of management 

The predictive modeling research on global fishing effort redistribution conducted by Raynor and her colleagues offers governments, policy-makers, and scientists a tool to strategically plan future restoration and conservation efforts by simply showing us where the boats will go. Dr. Raynor also highlighted the importance of extending climate-driven prediction of fishing effort movement to their model as they look at changes in the ranges of key species. This will help place MPAs in areas that will be most resilient. 

Future research 

When asked about future research and the future MPA management, Dr. Raynor said she was interested in exploring the mechanisms that lead to lower fishing effort outside MPAs. She also emphasized the importance of creating policies to alleviate economic strain and management strategies. Last, but not least, she points researchers to study the equity impacts of MPAs on coastal communities that rely on their fisheries for nutrition: “I fundamentally think conservation can be a win-win when it is implemented carefully and thoughtfully for both ecosystems and economies and people.”

As the 30×30 deadline approaches, perhaps it is incumbent upon us to think less about percentages and more about placement and policy in an ever-changing ocean and world. 

Where Will the Boats Go? A Discussion with Dr. Jennifer Raynor on the First Global Predictive Modeling of Fishing Effort in a 30×30 Ocean.